A recession is coming. With the sudden 1000+ point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average today, following another major devaluation of China’s currency (8 percent? My God, 8 percent?), and the incessant weaknesses in the U.S. labor force during this weakest of all recoveries, the signs of a new recession are all here. But remember, a recession is always coming.
The first instinct is to wonder if the Federal Reserve should press ahead with raising the core interest rate during its September meeting. To do so in the face of so much volatility — and what feels like an imminent recession — seems to be completely counter to the basic folk wisdom of monetary policy. A central bank should lower, not raise, interest rates during the down cycle, right? I suppose that folk wisdom is correct, but beware panic thinking. Some thoughts, very briefly:
- Just because the stock valuations are volatile does not mean the US economy is recessing. That’s a huge leap. Indeed, the quick bounce back in stock prices today shows that there are plenty of buyers ready to scoop up equity from panic sellers. Don’t lose sight of low unemployment, steady GDP growth, and other fundamentals.
- China’s devaluation (and the weakness in oil and other commodity prices) confirms global weaknesses. At a minimum, these signs indicate that other leading economies are weaker than the U.S. economy.
- Both previous points beg the question why U.S. interest rates are set to zero. I would argue that the zero rate has many large, second order costs. It is a major burden on other currencies, for one. By keeping US rates low, the Fed is effectively weakening the dollar relative to other currencies. There is no escaping the fact that the Fed is a central player in the currency trials — putting pressure on China, Japan, and Europe to keep their rates (and pegs) lower still. That seems destabilizing to me, and the blowback is finally here.
I think the Fed missed its optimal moment to raise rates. Zero was and still is too stimulative. A healthier U.S. economy demands a return to normalcy with interest rates, and I’m frustrated that the insistence on high asset prices may cause a crash. Today was a warning. Let’s hope it is not too late for the Fed to get rates normal.