The China bubble

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard doubts China will surpass U.S. GDP in this century. Now that’s a long view, quite contrary to conventional wisdom.  Note his use of the term “economic power”

Doubts are growing about whether China can pass the US to become the world’s biggest economy this century amid warnings that the country’s 30-year miracle is nearing exhaustion. … As of last year US GDP was roughly $15.7 trillion, compared to $8 trillion for China on a nominal exchange rate basis, the measure that matters for gauging economic power.

3 responses to “The China bubble

  1. There is great skepticism that China’s reported GDP is accurate. It is likely inflated and thus this article is even more prescient. Other than GDP we should also rate nations on rule of law, IP protection, civil rights, product safety, business ethics, geopolitical conduct, environmental impact, innovation, and trust to name just a few measures. China has along way to surpass the US and most other G7 countries.

  2. Correction: the last line of my previous post should read “China has a long way to go to surpass the US and most other G7 (and for that matter most other G20) countries”.

  3. All China has to do to look like the greatest economic power in the world, at least for a moment, is to let their currency rise as many have requested. The reason it is pegged, as the Euro is to the dollar, is that if it floated freely it would likely collapse because their system is so amazingly opaque.

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